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Prediction for CME (2024-07-27T06:36:00-CME-001)CME Observed Time: 2024-07-27T06:36ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/32245/-1 CME Note: Asymmetric halo CME visible towards the NW in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and towards the NE in STEREO A COR2. The source is an M3.1 flare from AR 3762 with dimming/EUV wave towards the N/NW starting at 2024-07-27T05:42Z best seen in GOES SUVI 195 and 284 (SDO/AIA has an eclipse shortly after the event starts). The eruption is also visible south of disk center as seen in available EUV imagery. Arrival signature: a likely combined shock of this CME and up to 3 preceding CMEs characterized by a sharp increase in B_total from ~5nT to ~13 and eventually to 15nT, fast fluctuation of magnetic field components, a jump in solar wind speed from 330 to 480 km/s and an increase in density from 6 to above 10 p/cc. CME Shock Arrival Time: 2024-07-29T23:20Z Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME: ---- Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-07-31T04:30Z (-12.0h, +12.0h) Confidence that the CME will arrive: 60.0% Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 6.0 Prediction Method: Other (SIDC) Prediction Method Note: #--------------------------------------------------------------------# # DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC # # (RWC Belgium) # #--------------------------------------------------------------------# SIDC URSIGRAM 40728 SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 28 Jul 2024, 1245UT SIDC FORECAST SOLAR FLARES : M-class flares expected (probability >=50%) GEOMAGNETISM : Quiet (A<20 and K<4) SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet PREDICTIONS FOR 28 Jul 2024 10CM FLUX: 205 / AP: 008 PREDICTIONS FOR 29 Jul 2024 10CM FLUX: 206 / AP: 008 PREDICTIONS FOR 30 Jul 2024 10CM FLUX: 205 / AP: 009 Coronal mass ejections: ...A halo CME was first observed in the SOHO/LASCO C2 images around 06:30 UTC on Jul 27. This CME was possibly associated with a M3.1 flare, which peaked at 05:46 UTC on Jul 27, produced by NOAA AR 3762 (S11 W25). Possibly associted type IV radio emissions were detected at 06:43 UTC on Jul 27. With a projected speed of about 450 km/s, it is expected to impact the Earth on 30-31 Jul.Lead Time: 12.85 hour(s) Difference: -29.17 hour(s) Prediction submitted by Tony Iampietro (M2M SWAO) on 2024-07-29T10:29Z |
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